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Subject:
New Poll Documents East Timorese Optimism about Democracy
Associated Press
http://www.iri.org/11-15-03-ap.asp
November 15, 2003 --
Post-independence confidence in East Timor has declined, with nearly 40
per cent of East Timorese saying they feel worse off now than under
Indonesian rule and less than half optimistic about the future,
according to a survey.
However, most of the
1,561 surveyed by the non-partisan International Republican Institute
voiced confidence in their government, with 90 per cent describing the
presidency as good or excellent, and positive appraisals of 75 per cent
for the courts, 67 per cent for Parliament and 53 per cent for the prime
minister's office.
The poll comes as
East Timor is wrestling with a stagnant economy and doubts over the
government's ability to run the country after the United Nations departs
next year. The survey is based on a representative national sample with
an error margin of 2.6 per cent.
"Things aren't
perfect here," Deborah White, the institute's country director, told The
Associated Press. "People have said there are problems with this and
that," she said. "But when they rated institutions, people
overwhelmingly rated them good or excellent. It says to me that there is
still confidence in these institutions. People are willing to give the
government a chance to solve these problems."
According to the
US-funded annual survey, 42 per cent of respondents felt East Timor was
better off since the country became independent in 2001, while 38.9 per
cent felt it was worse off. Another 17.2 per cent felt the country had
not changed.
More significantly,
the percentage of Timorese who voiced optimism about the country's
future dropped from 75 per cent last year to 48 per cent this year.
However, only 30 per cent felt the country was headed in the wrong
direction.
Respondents said
their concerns about the future were fuelled by unresolved problems,
with 65 per cent saying corruption had worsened since independence and
43 per cent saying the economy had deteriorated.
However, Timorese
said that freedom, security and the educational system had improved
since independence.
Indonesia's brutal
24-year occupation ended in 1999, prompting Indonesian troops and their
proxy militias to rampage through the country, killing 1,500 people and
destroying much of the infrastructure.
USAID
New Poll Documents East Timorese Optimism about Democracy
On November 11, 2003, the International Republican Institute (IRI)
announced the results of East Timor's first public opinion poll.
According to the survey, conducted across the country last month, a
sizable majority of 68% of respondents are optimistic that democracy
“will reform East Timor and solve the problems we face.”
When asked if democracy is "our best hope for the future," 84% of
respondents agreed; only 6% disagreed. When asked if democracy is the
best way for East Timor "to industrialize," 85% agreed. Respondents also
have respect for various institutions, from the Presidency to the UN to
the Prime Ministry; each received a "good" or "excellent" rating of more
than 50%.
Another finding of the poll is that 89% of respondents feel free to
express their political opinions, while only 5% feel they are unable to
express their opinions openly.
East Timor's Foreign Affairs Minister Dr. Jose Ramos-Horta introduces
the results of his nation's first public opinion poll. Photo by Nicole
Seibel, USAID/East Timor
This survey reveals that citizens feel free to express their
political opinions and are willing to give democracy a real chance,"
said Deborah White, IRI's country director in East Timor.
According to the poll, East Timor's citizens have two main concerns:
"KKN" (the Indonesian acronym for corruption, collusion, and nepotism)
and the economy. Some 65% said that "KKN" has become worse since
independence and 43% said the same about the economic situation. On
issues of democracy, freedom, security, education, and health care, more
people believe that conditions have improved rather than deteriorated
since independence.
IRI and the University of Dili conducted the poll in all 13 of East
Timor's districts. They released the results at a special seminar in
Dili, the capital. Foreign Affairs Minister Dr. Jose Ramos-Horta served
as moderator with six other panelists representing political parties,
academic institutions, and IRI. About 200 people attended the seminar
and received copies of the results and the IRI press release in Tetum or
English. The poll sampled the opinions of 1,561 East Timorese citizens
across the country in numbers proportional to the population of each
region. IRI estimates the survey's margin of error at plus or minus
2.5%.
USAID supports IRI in its work to strengthen East Timor's democratic
institutions and encourage participation in politics by more of the
country's citizens, including women. IRI's polling program seeks to
increase political leaders' awareness and responsiveness to the concerns
of the electorate.
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