Subject: AFR: Numbers adding up for Timor
independence
Date: Sat, 07 Aug 1999 10:07:02 -0400
From: "John M. Miller" <fbp@igc.apc.org>Australian Financial Review
Aug. 4, 1999
Numbers adding up for Timor independence By Tim Dodd, Dili
The East Timorese are voting with their feet. In the rugged mountains in the interior
of the territory, families have walked for hours, even days, to register for the
UN-organised ballot on August 30 which will give them the choice between greater autonomy
under Indonesian rule and full independence.
The threats by the pro-Indonesia militia groups, the widespread burning of houses and
the fact that tens of thousands of people have been driven into refugee camps by militia
intimidation have not kept the East Timorese away from the polling stations.
Voter registration closes today in the 200 polling centres established across East
Timor and the turnout has met the UN's highest expectations.
By late yesterday 383,000 people had registered, compared with an original UN estimate
of between 300,000 and 400,000 eligible voters.
Pro-independence activists are becoming increasingly confident. With nearly 400,000
people registered, they believe they are playing with a full deck. Despite the militia
tactics, few of the pro-independence supporters have been scared away.
Leandro Isaac is the senior official of the independence group, the National Council
for Timorese Resistance, in East Timor. (He is outranked only by Xanana Gusmao, who is
held in detention by the Indonesians in Jakarta.) Isaac will not say directly what he
thinks the result will be, Continued page 14 but he can't disguise his grin. He is happy
to say he is "an optimist".
Independent observers agree with his assessment. The large voter turnout means that the
independence forces are on the road to victory.
According to Carina Birelli, the UN's director of electoral assistance who is
responsible worldwide for UN-organised voting, the "success is reflective of the will
of the East Timorese to go to the polls".
"We have seen them travelling long distances in order to register ... whole
villages organising themselves," said Birelli, who recently visited East Timor to
assess the situation.
There is no doubt that many would-be voters are apprehensive. According to UN workers
in the polling centres, sometimes the old people are sent in first. Then, when nothing
happens to them, the rest of the family follows.
Of course, the high number of voters registered may mean there has been widespread
multiple registration. But the UN's monitoring of the situation suggests this is not a
major problem.
"It is precisely the very unevenness of the data which is reassuring for us. If it
were homogeneous and at the same pace I would be extremely worried," Birelli said.
The East Timor capital, Dili, is a different place now compared with two months ago
when the militia terror was near its height. Then the street life was subdued. Now the
streets are busier and footpath hawkers are back.
The influx of UN staff, journalists, diplomats and workers for non-government
organisations has given the economy a boost.
Dili's shopkeepers, hard hit when Indonesian professionals fled last year to escape the
trouble, are doing much better. Dili's biggest supermarket reports its profits are up 25
per cent compared with six months ago, although supplies are becoming hard to obtain. The
bakery has branched out into new products to appeal to the Westerners in town and turnover
is up 20 per cent on six months ago. At the souvenir shop near the market, for months a
favourite trouble spot for the militias, profits are up 70 per cent.
The town's few hotels are fully booked and private houses are taking up the slack,
bringing windfall returns to their owners. To rent a house in Dili now costs about
$US1,500 ($2,312) a month, and owners of the town's relatively few large houses have been
quick to move out and cash in. Likewise, the owners of vehicles are getting nearly $US40 a
day when they rent them out to journalists or film crews.
There are also more jobs for locals. The UN currently employs about 1,000 East Timorese
and this figure is rapidly rising. It will peak at about 4,000 on polling day.
But the economic boost from the ballot and the UN presence will be temporary and, if
independence comes, something will be needed to replace the estimated $100 million net
cost that East Timor currently imposes on the Indonesian Government's Budget.
Florentino Sarmento, a widely respected pro-Indonesian activist who heads the local
section of the Jakarta Government's Human Rights Commission, said that an independent East
Timor would be "completely dependent on international charity".
A significant portion of it will come from Australia.
On his historic visit to Dili last Friday, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Alexander
Downer, said that assistance would be stepped up regardless of which side won whether the
territory became autonomous or independent. But an independent East Timor will need far
more aid than one still integrated with Indonesia.
This reliance on Western aid is often cited by pro-integrationist East Timorese as a
reason to stay with Indonesia.
The leader of the notorious Aitarak militia, Eurico Guterres, held a street party
recently in Dili which he said was to thank Indonesia for helping East Timor. In a
one-hour speech to the hundreds of guests present, he acknowledged that independence would
bring financial help from overseas.
"But you will be tied to Australia and the US. You will be slaves to them,"
he declared.
No such public campaigning is being done by the pro-independence side. They are lying
low and, with the exception of several isolated incidents, have avoided provoking the
militias or the army.
Isaac said that his side did not need to campaign. "We are not concentrating on
the campaign because there has been a campaign for the last 23 years," he said.
Assuming the independence side wins the August 30 vote, there will be a dangerous
interregnum. The pro-independence side will be celebrating its victory and many
independence supporters will be seeking to settle old scores with the militiamen who have
terrorised tens of thousands of East Timorese in the past six months.
But East Timor will still be governed by Indonesia, and security will remain in the
hands of demoralised Indonesian soldiers and policemen whose primary thoughts will be
about going home.
Worse still, the Indonesian forces might carry out a fighting retreat, under attack
from the pro-independence guerilla force Falintil, to protect the evacuation of native
Indonesians who wish to escape to West Timor.
A memo, addressed to the Indonesian Political and Security Affairs Minister, Feisal
Tandjung, from one of his aides, gives credence to this fear. The July 3 memo, believed by
Western governments to be genuine, admits that the integrationists are losing and
forecasts a bloody payback against the army by Falintil.
Outlining one scenario, the memo said: "Nusa Tenggara Timur [the province that
includes West Timor] must be made ready to receive huge numbers of refugees and their
security forces. The evacuation routes must be planned and secured, possibly destroying
facilities and other vital objects."
There was an indication this week that the militia no longer strikes fear into the
hearts of East Timorese, as it did even several weeks ago. Early on Sunday morning there
was a traffic accident in Dili between a motorcyclist and two militiamen, who were also on
a motorbike. A dispute followed and the militiamen shot and killed the 24-year-old
motorcyclist. An angry crowd then took revenge by stoning a nearby militia house and
setting it alight.
When fear of the militias is lost, bloody paybacks could follow. The ideal solution
would be to disarm the Falintil and the militias. But neither side will go first, and, in
any case, the Falintil fear attack by the army if they surrender their weapons.
The UN has a fallback plan: to isolate the Falintil guerillas and the militia groups in
cantonments. Falintil has agreed to co-operate and has selected four areas where it says
its fighters have begun to assemble. The Indonesian army says it will ensure the militias
do the same but, as yet, there is no evidence it is happening.
But reconciliation talks are taking place at various levels between Falintil and the
militias, and also between the political leaders of both sides, to prepare for polling day
and its aftermath.
On both sides, there are moderates who realise the futility of more conflict. Sarmento
said that he was optimistic that "finally we have learnt from past mistakes that
violence is not the solution to the process".
But there are those who have not learnt. In Maliana, near the border of West Timor
where support for Indonesia is strongest, the bupati, or mayor, Guilherme dos Santos,
encourages militia intimidation of UN staff and locals who try to register.
Can the radical elements be reined in in the dangerous period after the votes? Until
Indonesia formally gives up sovereignty, unlikely to be before January 2000, no one
expects it will accept peacekeeping troops, as desirable as they may be.
At the moment, the UN is negotiating for an increase in the numbers of civilian police
advisers (now 270) and military liaison officers (50 at present) and hoping that goodwill
prevails on both sides.
The last thing East Timor needs is another bloodbath. Alexander Downer said yesterday
he was confident East Timor's independence ballot would take place on August 30 as
planned. The poll has twice been delayed because of security problems, persistent unrest
and logistical problems.
"I think at the moment, without wishing to sound too optimistic, things are
looking a little more positive and I feel now reasonably confident that the ballot will
take place on August 30," Downer told Reuters.
"If that happens, then I think we can look forward progressively to the East Timor
issue finally being resolved," he said.
"A large number of people have registered and that, of course, is a very good
sign."
Once they've registered, we're half way to resolving the problem."
Downer said he was reasonably optimistic that the vote would be fair.
"It's going to be held in a very difficult environment and frankly ... we can only
do what we can to persuade the Indonesians that it should be a free and fair vote,"
he said.
"We've done an enormous amount to do that, and I feel they are responding better
than was the case perhaps two or three months ago."
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