Subject: SMH: Indonesia likely to stall, impose
unacceptable conditions
Date: Sun, 12 Sep 1999 16:29:26 EDT
From: Joyo@aol.com
Excerpt: There are many imponderables. Some analysts suspect Jakarta will try to impose
all sorts of conditions to gain time, including perhaps a ban on Australia providing
ground troops or a strictly limited mandate for the force. One thing is certain: if the
Australian contribution is increased to 4,500, as Mr Howard has suggested, it would place
a huge strain on Australia's capacity.
Sydney Morning Herald Monday, September 13, 1999
Peace-force shape emerges
By PETER COLE-ADAMS, Defence Correspondent
As the world waited for Indonesian assent, the shape of an international peacekeeping
force for East Timor was emerging yesterday.
One key element lay in a weekend comment by the Prime Minister, Mr Howard, who said in
Auckland that the likely American involvement on the ground, apart from previously
foreshadowed help in transport and logistics, would be akin to Australia's role in the
Cambodian peacekeeping operation.
Australia provided two things to that United Nations exercise, which ran from February
1992 to October 1993. One was the commander, General John Sanderson; the other was the
entire communications structure for the UN peacekeepers and administration, as well as for
the subsequent election. To put that in perspective, General Sanderson recalled last night
that Australia sent only about 550 troops to Cambodia out of a total of about 16,000 from
34 nations.
Australia has already offered to play the leadership role in East Timor, but defence
analysts say American help in transporting contingents from other countries to Dili, and
in providing communications, would be critically important.
Mr Howard said the Australian Defence Force was "extremely pleased" with what
the US was ready to do.
The US has immense heavy-lift air and naval capabilities, without which it would be
impossible for many foreign contingents to get to Dili quickly. Assuming Indonesia agrees
to a multi-national force, there are now four nations of the Association of South-East
Asian Nations that are prepared to contribute: Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and
Singapore. Others committed or likely to participate include Britain, New Zealand, Canada,
Sweden, France and Portugal.
Initially, a multi-national force is likely to be relatively small. Australia could get
about 2,000 troops on the ground very quickly, backed by some hundreds of New Zealanders
and British, and (with US transport) the Malaysians. Their immediate task would be to
secure the Dili airport, the seaport and perhaps Baucau. Many more troops will be needed
before they venture into the militia-infested hinterland. The degree of danger would
depend, regardless of any undertakings given in Jakarta, on the attitude of Indonesian
troops on the ground. The feeling in Australian Defence circles is that the force would be
able to deal fairly quickly with militia opposition, given "robust" rules of
engagement.
But there are many imponderables. Some analysts suspect Jakarta will try to impose all
sorts of conditions to gain time, including perhaps a ban on Australia providing ground
troops or a strictly limited mandate for the force. One thing is certain: if the
Australian contribution is increased to 4,500, as Mr Howard has suggested, it would place
a huge strain on Australia's capacity.
Mr Michael O'Connor, of the Australian Defence Association, says the army could sustain
a brigade-strength commitment of up to 3,000 troops indefinitely, but anything larger
would eventually involve calling up the reserves.
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