|Submission by The East Timor International Support Center (Australia) to
the UN Decolonisation Committee
EAST TIMOR IS VIABLE AS AN INDEPENDENT
East Timor is a relatively simple case in terms of international law - yet it has
remained on the books of the United Nations Decolonisation Committee for over two decades.
In the opinion of our organisation - the East Timor International Support
Center - the East Timorese people have the right to self determination and that is
evident. Legally and morally the issue is one of the most clear-cut in the world and
arguments that make that case have been advanced on many occasions and no doubt will again
be presented to this meeting of the Decolonisation Committee.
As events evolve in Indonesia and internationally , it becomes easier to envisage such
an act of self determination actually taking place in East Timor. On the streets of Dili,
Baucau, Manatuto and Jakarta the East Timorese people make it clear again and again that
they know their rights and will be satisfied with nothing less than self determination.
Most reports are that support for independence is very high - probably over 90% - and that
independence for East Timor would be the likely outcome of a fair vote .
As that is the case, we decided to make our submission a brief overview of the
viability of East Timor as an independent state and an outline of events in Indonesia that
make it critical, in our opinion, that East Timor undertakes a valid act of self
determination as soon as possible. This submission only addresses some of the practical
issues confronting East Timor - avoiding the legal and moral issues which have been
discussed at length.
Whilst it is true that there are risks ahead for an independent East Timor, there are
certainly great risks involved in staying with Indonesia in the current circumstances . We
believe that the risks of staying with Indonesia are greater.
INDONESIA IS NOT IN A POSITION TO HELP EAST TIMOR EVEN IF IT WANTS TO
The Indonesian economy is in tatters. No one knows where it will end up. A series of
events has taken things from bad to worse and there is no end in sight. Estimates of
Indonesias debt vary from about 100 to 200 billion dollars. The currency has been
devalued to a sixth of its previous value with respect to the US dollar. This has
triggered massive inflation, bank and business closures and mass unemployment leading to
grinding poverty and hunger. The resulting riots are estimated to have done another 10
billion dollars damage to the economy and more importantly seriously damaged the
confidence of foreign and local investors. Indonesian Chinese who control much of the
local capital were targeted for violent attacks on their businesses and persons. Much of
this capital will flee the country to safe havens, further exacerbating Indonesias
Events are far from over there - probably only beginning as the real impact of the
economic hardship hits . Basics such as food and water are considered a problem. More
rioting and instability is likely, bringing a further round of economic problems. The
economic, social and political problems could lock into a vicious circle driving Indonesia
into chaos and breakdown.
To say that East Timor will benefit from Indonesias assistance in the middle of
such a scenario stretches credulity to breaking point.
For the previous 20 years or so Indonesias economy was booming according to the
experts. Indonesia bragged about how it was developing and assisting East Timor in a way
that Portugal had not done in 500 years. It was said that all were happy (except an
ungrateful few) and that Indonesian largesse had brought the territory forward in leaps
This raises some questions - if such development has occurred, how come the health of
the population (as exemplified by statistics such as perinatal mortality) is about the
worst in Indonesia and very poor by world standards. How come there are doubts (after all
this development) about whether the Timorese have the education to govern their country ?
How come the country is continually referred to as poor and lacking infrastructure ? Why
are the people so dissatisfied with this progress? Why do people feel that
they are materially no better of than they were when the Portuguese left ?
Either the Indonesian development has been of little benefit or the
Timorese, possibly resenting their occupiers presence, have failed to take advantage
of whats on offer. Either way it raises the question - if money allegedly poured in
to East Timor in times of economic boom has had virtually no impact on the lives of most
people on the ground - how can Indonesia suddenly offer East Timor more when
it is itself financially on its knees ?
What is far more likely is that little or nothing of what is being offered will arrive
- Indonesia has a long history of lying to the East Timorese and lying to the outside
world about what is going on there. Even if the Government of Indonesia (GOI) means its
words it is unlikely to be able to deliver help that is useful - firstly the culture of
corruption means that much is skimmed off before arrival, then what is invested is
invested according to priorities defined by the GOI not by the East Timorese. But the
reality is that there will be almost certainly be no spare money - even if the will is
there from Indonesia to spend it.
It is more likely that when the Timor Gap oil comes on-line later this year that
Jakarta will find the income irresistible and will take the revenues that are rightly the
Timorese peoples. With the economic downturn, it will take time for these revenues
to be realised, but they are likely to deliver potentially a number of hundred million
dollars per annum in the not too distant future. An independent East Timor will be able to
draw on this - but not if it remains tethered to Indonesia.
But one may ask - what about Special Status for East Timor as promised by
President Habibie - surely that would make the situation more tenable ?
Until now the special status of Aceh and Jogjakarta have meant nothing. The Indonesian
system has not allowed autonomy to have any meaning. After all the lies they have heard,
should the East Timorese be asked to put their faith in a concept that has had no
effective meaning elsewhere ?
Furthermore the man offering this Special Status is himself not secure in
his position. The economic, social and political forces at work mean that Habibie may not
be president for long - and will promises he made then be honored by a successor ? ( one
must remember Adam Maliks promise to Jose Ramos Horta in 1974 that Indonesia had no
intention of annexing East Timor - this promise became worthless as events unfolded). Can
Habibie reliably deliver on deals he might make with East Timor ? Probably not .
One might argue that change will favour democratisation in Indonesia and that this will
assist East Timor and make recognition of its Special Status more secure.
Whilst its true that significant portions of the population are clamoring for democracy
and an end to corruption and nepotism in Indonesia , it is clear that the engine that has
been driving change till now is the economic collapse and the threat of poverty and
hunger. This driving force remains active - if improvements do not come it could drive
Habibie from office and possibly bring democratic change. However democratic change of
itself may not help East Timor . Its vote will be insignificant in a country of 200
million people whose potential leaders have not shown great interest in or understanding
of East Timor.
Anyway the masses may not have patience with democratic change if they are hungry and
jobless. Democracy per se is not going to right the economy instantly - there
could continue to be major unrest and dissatisfaction. The democratic forces will be
confronted with running a country that will be extremely difficult to govern and they are
likely to have their own factions and differences of approach to deal with as well . It is
possible to imagine a scenario of great concern - worsening unrest and instability that a
democratic government may not be able to control.
This sort of scenario could lead to extreme solutions - a military coup would be a
distinct possibility. Or Indonesian society might move towards a more fundamentalist
Islam. Or areas of Indonesia might see a solution in greater regional autonomy and demand
more local control of their affairs - possibly causing greater instability still.
It is hard to see any of these possible scenarios being of benefit to East Timor. In
the case of a military coup and imposition of Martial Law, it is likely that the military
command will have served in East Timor , tend towards a hard line attitude and be very
reluctant to grant any concessions . So East Timor would be back in exactly the same boat
with no progress at all - as a result of taking the reasonable option of
hanging on to Indonesia for a longer period.
Of course these scenarios are conjecture and could be wrong. But no matter what, the
future in Indonesia is extremely unpredictable and volatile at present and if East Timor
chose to remain tethered to Indonesia it could be riding a roller coaster.
AN INDEPENDENT EAST TIMORS PROSPECTS ARE GOOD IN THE LONGER TERM
Whilst it is true that East Timor is not a rich country it does have sufficient
resources to be viable and self reliant.
The most notable resource is the oil and gas of course. But there is also the coffee
crop, sandalwood ( which would need to be redeveloped after the recent destruction),
marble and in addition some reserves of silver and manganese.
Tourism and fishing are two industries that could be developed more.
Of these the oil and gas deposits already proven in the Timor Gap are the most
significant financially . Although delayed somewhat by the Asian economic downturn, it is
likely that revenue will begin to flow later this year and build up to a number of hundred
million dollars per annum within the next decade. More finds could make this amount
higher. This income to the Treasury of an independent East Timor would be a vital and
But another matter of concern is the human resources of East Timor - how
well equipped will the people be to manage their own affairs ? The Indonesian education
system seems to have been of poor quality and encouraged a rote learning
approach. The occupation has made free speech and discussion difficult, repressing
individual thinking and initiative. Technical education is generally poor - although there
are now growing numbers of Timorese with the professional training that will be needed in
an independent country.
Against this is the capacity and tenacity that the Timorese have undoubtedly shown to
survive in conditions of hardship and adversity and find solutions that work. The survival
and effectiveness of the Timorese Resistance against all odds in the mountains and the
towns is an example of this. In 1975 when East Timorese began the process of running their
own country, it was by all accounts quite well run. The administration of essential
services as well as basic education and health care and the defense needs of the territory
were attended to within limitations of available resources.
Again in the mountains between 1976 and 1979 the population functioned in societies
that were able to provide for their essential needs with minimal resources - till
Indonesian bombing was able dislocate them and destroy the food supplies. The people
certainly have the inherent capacity - but some outside help will be vital.
There is no doubt that the people have the strong will to create their own country -
and that must surely be the main prerequisite to succeed. They also have an advantage that
they have been moulded by events of the past 23 years - the people identify very strongly
with their country - Timor Leste/ Timor Loro Sae/ East Timor. Timorese have developed a
worldliness as a result of their experiences - they have had to learn how the world works
and what forces drive events. Their is little naiveté in East Timor.
They have a strong common adherence to the Catholic Church and a strong belief in their
leaders from the Church and the Timorese Resistance . Church leaders Bishop Belo and
Bishop Nacimento are well respected as are Resistance leaders such as Jose Ramos Horta and
others inside East Timor. Xanana Gusmao is the overall leader and regarded with reverence
by his people. These are all intelligent , civilised and moderate men who have the
capacity to guide East Timor well.
Of course there are old conflicts and enmities as there are in all situations like this
- these problems cannot be denied . Many have been actively fostered by the Indonesian
occupiers to divide the people - the divide and conquer strategy. However
the signs so far are that the Timorese people have the maturity to deal with these issues
with some moderation over time. They have already recognised the need to work with those
who had positions in the Indonesian system - realising that their skills and knowledge
will continue to be needed . The restraint shown so far augurs well - the East Timorese
may be able to find reconciliation between different parties in a way that other countries
have not achieved in similar circumstances.
There is little doubt that over time and with some help, the Timorese population will
develop the skills to be effectively self reliant. East Timor currently draws quite a high
level of international interest and support and relatively small inputs from some
governments and NGOs around the world could raise the level of skills and capacity in a
relatively short time and with a relatively small investment.
Here again, it is likely to be to East Timors benefit if it obtains independence.
An independent East Timor is likely to receive substantially more foreign aid than one
that has chosen autonomy within Indonesia.
EAST TIMOR CAN MANAGE INDEPENDENCE IN THE SHORTER TERM
Before one talks about future developments it is relevant to consider the more
immediate - how could the people survive in the short term, before any financial flows
start, before training brings any benefit ?
The answer must be - much as people do at present , only better. The people have
already endured massive hardship under the Indonesian occupation. In the past about
100,000 died of famine. Even now the most basic of resources are not available, or are not
affordable to most Timorese. Food supplies are not secure, people are malnourished in
areas, diseases such as TB and malaria are endemic . Health and education are poor. The
people are pushed from their land and relocated by the Indonesian forces for
strategic or economic reasons.
If the occupiers would simply leave and the constraints and pressures of the low
intensity war would stop, people would immediately be able to take steps to improve
agricultural productivity and food supply somewhat. This alone would be an improvement.
The people in Timor have already said of the economic crisis gripping Indonesia -
It doesnt affect us much - we already had very little . We know how to live on
almost nothing. Simply freeing the population from constraints imposed by the
Indonesian military about land use and location will improve the peoples capacity to
utilise their main asset , which is their self sufficiency.
In time, development of industries and more training will bring benefits for the
economy. But the people almost certainly have the capacity to improve their own lives in
the short term if they are given the opportunity to manage their own destiny. The main
thing the people aspire to is more than material - it is to be free in their own country.
So - the argument presented here is that there are practical reasons why East Timor
should move to disengage itself from Indonesia as soon as possible. This course of action
has some risks, but every course of action will have risks, especially in the current
Maybe East Timor is like a lifeboat being towed behind the Titanic. It is
small and has some leaks , but it will probably float OK because its fundamentally
seaworthy. Should this little boat remain tethered to the unsinkable mother
ship - that has just hit an iceberg - or should it cut itself loose and take its chances
floating alone ?
Submitted by Dr. Andrew McNaughton on behalf of the East Timor International
The East Timor International Support Center (ETISC) is a non government organisation
incorporated in Australia and operating from Darwin in northern Australia.
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Contacts for ETISC :
PO Box 651, Nightcliff, Darwin, NT, 0814, AUSTRALIA
Phone - + 61 8 89484458 Fax - + 61 8 89484498