| Subject: Kingsbury: Growing Doubts on
Aceh's Relief Effort
Also: Quake-Hit Indonesia Drops Russia Jet Deal - Source; WSJ:
Jakarta's Unusual Step: Seeking Foreign Advice on Aceh Conflict
The Australian January 12, 2005
Opinion
Growing Doubts on Aceh's Relief Effort
By Damien Kingsbury
THE arrival in Aceh of militant Islamic fundamentalist groups has
raised the prospect of conflict with foreign aid workers and troops,
including Australians, who are helping the tsunami relief operation.
Indonesian and Australian authorities have claimed the Islamist
organisations do not pose an immediate threat, and that the Indonesian
military (TNI) can provide sufficient security.
But this was the claim made in East Timor in 1999, when the TNI
actively supported militias. There are some parallels with Aceh.
The leader of the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) has already threatened
foreigners by saying un-Islamic behaviour in public, such as drinking
alcohol, will not be tolerated. The even more militant Laskar Mujahidin
(LM), which is also in Aceh, has engaged in sectarian warfare against
Christians in Ambon and Central Sulawesi.
The presence of these organisations in Aceh has disturbed many Acehnese,
not least the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), which has rejected them as
corrupting Islam. While GAM members are devout Sunni Muslims, GAM itself
is not an Islamic organisation and it rejects Islamic fundamentalism.
Radical Islamist organisations have attempted to work in Aceh in the
past, in particular the Laskar Jihad and, more recently, Jemaah Islamiah.
GAM rejected their advances and they found no support among local Acehnese.
For a province that has suffered almost three decades of conflict, the
presence of TNI-backed militias is not new, and many see the FPI in
particular as just another imported militia organisation. The FPI began
life in August 1998 as a civilian militia, organised by military leaders
to attack pro-democracy protesters.
Under the leadership of a Saudi educated Arab-Indonesian, Habib Rizieq,
the FPI took on a more explicitly Islamist hue, smashing up bars and
nightclubs it claimed offended Islamic faith. The FPI also operates
"protection" rackets in Jakarta and elsewhere, and is comprised
mostly of street thugs.
LM is a much more disciplined and focused organisation, being the
military wing of the Indonesian Mujahidin Council (MMI), which was
established and headed by alleged Jemaah Islamiah leader Abu Bakar Bashir.
LM fielded the most highly trained and well-armed militia in the Ambon
and central Sulawesi conflicts. The TNI retains active links with the FPI,
and although its association with LM is far more murky, being through
military intelligence, the LM was armed with standard issue TNI weapons
and uniforms during combat in Ambon.
There is an increasing view in Aceh that these organisations have not
been brought in to help, but to act as a third force in the conflict
between GAM and the TNI.
This view is supported by official Indonesian Government financing of
the organisations to travel to Aceh. The strategy of introducing militias
has proven effective where predominantly Javanese militias operate in
central Aceh. But the Javanese have not been welcomed in the more
populated coastal areas. Hence the arrival of groups that some believe can
appeal to the Islamic faith of the local population.
Meanwhile, the TNI is trying to present GAM as the only security threat
to the aid program. It has claimed that GAM guerillas have dressed as TNI
soldiers and redirected refugees and aid. The TNI has a history of being
less than frank about its own activities and it is unlikely that GAM has
the capacity or interest in dressing as TNI, especially when it is
currently under sustained TNI attack.
GAM declared a ceasefire the day after the tsunami struck, and says it
has stuck to that despite being attacked (the two TNI losses have been
acknowledged as being from "friendly fire").
The deteriorating security situation, therefore, appears to be largely
of the TNI's making. The question is why at this time of great disaster?
Outsiders have had limited access to Aceh for many years and after May
2003 it was effectively closed off during the TNI's bid to finally crush
GAM.
The TNI was initially reluctant to allow in foreign aid workers and it
has been clear that it wants them to leave as soon as possible. As it did
when the UN was bundled out of East Timor after the ballot in 1999, a
deteriorating security environment provides the perfect justification to
achieve that.
The TNI cannot conduct its campaign against GAM and many ordinary
Acehnese with the eyes of the world fixed on it. Nor, under such scrutiny,
can the TNI rake off a large share of the aid that is currently flowing in
to Aceh, although even with their presence some TNI personnel are selling
food aid to refugees. It has been a rule of thumb in Indonesia that only
about 10 per cent of aid arrives where it is intended.
There are various unofficial "taxes", and inflated
construction and transport costs by TNI companies. Aid officials in Aceh
are hoping they can keep losses down to about 30 per cent.
Access to some of the hundreds of millions of dollars of aid money
would, however, help fund the TNI's campaign in Aceh, which ran out of
money in mid-2004. As a largely self-funded institution, the TNI has a
quick eye for a dollar. The TNI is also committed to containing GAM, at
least to the extent that it only provides an excuse to maintain a military
and business â– presence in Aceh. Therefore, if Aceh's security
is now an issue, one need not look far for the principal cause.
Damien Kingsbury is director of International and Community Development
at Deakin University and author of Power Politics and the Indonesian
Military (RoutledgeCurzon) and The Politics of Indonesia (third edition,
Oxford). He recently completed an Australia Research Council project on
TNI business activities.
---
Reuters, January 13, 2005
Quake-Hit Indonesia Drops Russia Jet Deal - Source
By Maria Golovnina
MOSCOW - Indonesia is likely to ditch a planned order for Russian
warplanes because the money to pay for the jets has been diverted to the
tsunami relief effort, a high-ranking Russian defense official said on
Wednesday.
Indonesian officials signaled in the past few days that the deal worth
$890 million to buy at least six Russian-made Sukhoi jet fighters was off,
said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"It's all about the tsunami basically ... It has already affected
Indonesia's previously announced plans to buy Sukhoi planes and combat
helicopters. It's a serious situation for us," the official told
Reuters.
Indonesia was one of the countries hit on Dec. 26 by huge waves,
triggered by an earthquake, that killed more than 158,000 people around
the Indian Ocean.
Asia is a key market for Russian arms sales, especially Indonesia which
is under an embargo from Washington that prevents U.S. arms exporters
selling to Jakarta.
Moscow's arms exports in the region have already been hit by Thailand's
decision in October to pick an Anglo-Swedish consortium over Sukhoi to
replace its aging fleet of 16 American-made F-5s.
Sukhoi and Indonesian government officials were not immediately
available for comment. Jet sales make up two-thirds of Russia's arms
exports, mainly Sukhoi aircraft sold to Southeast Asia. Before the U.S.
embargo, Indonesia's military imported about 70 percent of its weapons
from the United States.
Separately, Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta quoted sources on Wednesday as
saying total losses to Russian arms sales because of the tsunami could be
up to $1.5 billion.
But an official at Rosoboronexport, Russia's state arms trader, said
the disaster would not have any serious effect on Russian exports.
Russia's arms trade has an order book of about $12 billion. It sold
more than $5 billion worth of arms and hardware in 2004.
Indonesia announced plans in November to buy more Sukhoi fighters,
adding to the four it already owns.
The Russian defense official said on Wednesday the order was for six
Sukhoi-30MKs and Sukhoi 27SKs and a number of combat helicopters.
Washington imposed the arms embargo on Indonesia after the outbreak of
mass violence in East Timor when the territory voted for independence from
Jakarta in a U.N-sponsored ballot in 1999.
(additional reporting by Anton Doroshev)
---------------------------
The Wall Street Journal Wednesday, January 12, 2005
Indonesia Seeks Foreign Advice On Aceh Conflict
Government Sees Chance To End 28-Year Rebellion, But Military May
Interfere
By DONALD GREENLEES Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
JAKARTA, Indonesia -- The government is taking the unusual step of
seeking the advice of other nations on possible solutions to the 28-year
separatist rebellion in Indonesia's disaster-hit Aceh province.
Still, military and political analysts here warn that Indonesia's
powerful armed forces could prove an obstacle to a negotiated peace. Some
expect the military to try to reassert control over Aceh and nudge local
and foreign aid agencies out of the province as soon as initial relief
operations are over.
Yesterday, Indonesia told aid workers not to venture beyond two large
cities on Sumatra island because of what it said were militant threats.
Indonesia's head of relief operations said agencies would need permission
to work outside the provincial capital, Banda Aceh, and the west coast
town of Meulaboh, ravaged by the Dec. 26 earthquake and resulting tsunami.
However, separatist rebels said they would never attack aid workers -- who
in turn said they aren't overly worried.
With 30,000 to 40,000 troops in Aceh fighting an estimated 5,000 armed
Free Aceh Movement rebels, and a state of civil-emergency in force since
September, the Indonesian armed forces largely had free rein in combating
the separatists before the quake and huge wave devastated the isolated
province at the northern tip of Sumatra.
But Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former general,
since has signaled that the foreign aid coming into Aceh and
reconstruction effort that will follow could open the door to a peace
settlement that eluded his predecessors.
"It all depends on how much power and control Yudhoyono is willing
to exert," said Sidney Jones, the Southeast Asia director of the
International Crisis Group, a Brussels think tank. "It ultimately
comes down to who is in control in Jakarta -- Yudhoyono or the military --
and what kind of political battles each is willing to fight."
On Monday, Mr. Yudhoyono called in the ambassadors of six countries for
their views on ways to end the conflict -- a move that marks a notable
shift in government thinking. Previous Indonesian leaders have been wary
of foreign involvement in Aceh.
The consultations included the ambassadors of the U.S., United Kingdom,
Japan, Singapore, Sweden and Libya. Sweden has been home to exiled Free
Aceh Movement leaders. Libya, once a source of arms and training for the
Muslim rebels demanding an independent Acehnese state, previously has
offered to act as a go-between.
Despite an informal cease-fire declared in the disaster's wake and
Jakarta's overtures to foreign governments, senior Western military
officers familiar with Indonesia contend the military doesn't want foreign
aid agencies to gain a permanent presence in Aceh once the initial crisis
has passed. They predict Jakarta will attempt to reassert control of the
military situation as soon as possible to prevent rebels from using the
respite to regroup and rearm.
For hard-line nationalist politicians and military officers, foreign
troops and aid workers in the Aceh relief effort also revives
uncomfortable memories of East Timor, which voted for independence from
Indonesia in a United Nations-sponsored referendum in 1999. Following that
vote, Indonesian soldiers and army-backed militias went on a rampage of
looting, arson and killing that destroyed almost all East Timor's major
towns.
Since the Timor episode -- which drew wide condemnation of Indonesia's
military -- distrust of international humanitarian agencies has run deep
among some Indonesian politicians and senior armed-forces officers.
But retired Gen. Luhut Panjaitan, a former minister for trade, plays
down parallels between East Timor and Aceh and said Jakarta is sincere in
its attempts to involve foreign governments in a solution to the
rebellion. "We would like to see the support of foreign countries to
settle the issue," he said. He added that Indonesia has a
"golden opportunity" to resolve the separatist problem.
How such a settlement might take shape is far from clear. Neither side
has shown any willingness in the past to back down from basic positions:
The rebels want full independence and Jakarta won't countenance the loss
of sovereignty over the province of 4.2 million people, which is rich in
natural gas, timber and other commodities.
Political analysts also are concerned that the apparent enthusiasm of
the government for a negotiated peace will last only as long as the
international community is engaged in the massive humanitarian relief
effort. "If there is talk of going to the negotiating table [with the
rebels] I think we will see the use of proxy groups" by the military,
said Ms. Jones of the International Crisis Group.
Indonesian democracy activist Smita Notosusanto, who is also in Banda
Aceh to help with the relief effort, expressed worries that militia groups
could put pressure on nongovernment organizations to leave the province,
especially if there is any suggestion their presence assists the rebels.
"All the civil-society leaders in Indonesia are here now,"
she said. For militia groups, this presents "a golden
opportunity" to harass civil-society organizations. "I think
it's going to happen pretty soon and the military will try to take control
again."
---- Timothy Mapes in Banda Aceh, Indonesia, contributed to this
article.
Write to Donald Greenlees at donald.greenlees@awsj.com
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