Subject: AFR: Who controls Indonesia's Timor policy?
Date: Sat, 24 Apr 1999 10:44:00 -0400
From: "John M. Miller" <fbp@igc.apc.org>Received from Joyo:
Australian Financial Review Saturday, April 24, 1999
Who controls Indonesia's Timor policy?
Fate rests on election
By Tim Dodd
When the Prime Minister, Mr John Howard, meets Indonesia's President Dr B.J. Habibie
next week one big question will hang over the meeting. Is he talking to the person who
really controls Indonesia"s Timor policy?
The Timor issue has highlighted how Dr Habibie has a propensity for dramatic decisions
but a limited record of being able to follow through.
The President has been able to reverse decades of Indonesian intransigence on East
Timor by tapping support from a growing band of influential moderate Muslims who believe
the cost of holding on to the province is too great.
Not only is it estimated to drain up to $140 million a year from the very stretched
government budget. But also the Indonesian presence in East Timor is straining its
relations with foreign countries. It is under continual attack for permitting human rights
abuses.
Leading this view is the President"s powerful foreign affairs adviser, Dr Dewi
Fortuna Anwar, who has overshadowed Indonesia"s long-serving Foreign Minister, Mr Ali
Alatas, in her influence on foreign policy.
She was the key influence behind President Habibie"s sudden decision in January to
make independence an option. The "we are better off without it" view is backed
by a rising group of Muslim modernists, who take a pragmatic view of East Timor. In
Cabinet they are typified by Mr Adi Sasono, the Co-operatives Minister. Outside of the
Government, the Muslim opposition figure and presidential candidate Mr Amien Rais, falls
into this camp.
Mr Alatas is the key opponent in Cabinet to the Habibie policy of letting East Timor
go. He is in the uncomfortable position of also being Indonesia"s negotiator at the
New York peace talks. His nationalist stance is rooted in the Soeharto era, where the view
prevailed that if East Timor goes then other restive provinces will follow.
Leading presidential candidate Mrs Megawati Soekarnoputri, although she led opposition
to Soeharto before his fall, also sees danger for the united archipelago in letting even
one province go.
Former army officers who spent most of their careers in East Timor also oppose allowing
it to secede, and they carry influence. Their association is led by former armed forces
commander and former vice-president Mr Try Sutrisno, who is trying to re-establish himself
in the main political game in the June parliamentary elections.
Whatever President Habibie does at high level, the implementation of East Timor policy
is in the hands of the army who are effectively the government of the province.
For President Habibie, East Timor policy is probably his only opportunity to make an
enduring mark because his remaining days of power are numbered. The current Soeharto-era
parliament, over which he has control, will be replaced by a democratically elected
parliament in June and the final decision about independence for East Timor will be up to
the new body.
If Mrs Megawati Soekarnoputri"s Indonesian Democracy Party in Struggle does well,
it is possible it could link up with old-style nationalists in the new parliament and
refuse East Timor its independence. President Habibie, who will hold his job until
November, may be powerless on the issue.
Back to April Menu
Human Rights Violations in East Timor
Main Postings Menu
June '98 through February '99 |
